Montrose Q2, 2018 Economic Outlook – Top 10 Economic Indicators

  1. Dominant US Market. The US $18 trillion economy constitutes nearly 25% of the global economy and is the worlds’ largest followed by China at $11 trillion.
  2. Growth of the US Market. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.2 % in the first quarter of 2018 and, in the fourth quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 2.9 %.
  3. Trade Deficit Massive. The goods and services deficit was $46.2 billion in April, 2018 down $1.0 billion from $47.2 billion in March, revised and the U.S. trade deficit in 2017 increased to $566 billion.
  4. Growth in Personal Income. Personal income increased $49.5 billion (0.3 %) in April, 2018 with Disposable personal income increasing $60.9 billion (0.4 %) and personal consumption expenditures increasing $79.8 billion (0.6 %).
  5. Stable Inflation. In April, 2018, the CPI for all urban consumers increased 0.2% seasonally adjusted; rising 2.5% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted–the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1% in April, 2018.
  6. Total Non-Farm Payroll Growing. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in May, 2018 and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8% with the employment continued to trend up in several industries, including retail trade, health care, and construction.
  7. Growing Industry Targets. For the nation, 17 of 21 industry groups increased in the third quarter with finance and insurance, durable goods manufacturing, and information services were the leading contributors to national economic growth: finance and insurance increased 14.7% nationally and contributed to growth in every state and the District of Columbia; durable goods manufacturing increased 7.5% nationally–the sixth consecutive quarter of growth; and information services increased 9.0% nationally.
  8. Stable Real Estate Market. National real estate vacancy rates in the fourth quarter 2017 were 6.9% for rental housing, 1.6% for homeowner housing, rental vacancy rate of 6.9% was virtually unchanged from the rate in the fourth quarter 2016 (6.9%) and 0.6% points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2017 (7.5%), homeowner vacancy rate of 1.6% was 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate in the fourth quarter 2016 (1.8%) and virtually unchanged from the rate in the third quarter 2017 (1.6%) and the homeownership rate of 64.2% was not statistically different from the rates in the fourth quarter 2016 (63.7%) or the third quarter 2017 (63.9%).
  9. Declining Foreign Direct Investment. Expenditures by foreign direct investors to acquire, establish, or expand U.S. businesses totaled $373.4 billion in 2016 with spending was down 15% from $439.6 billion in 2015 but was above the annual average of $350.0 billion for 2014-2015 and was well above the annual average of $226.0 billion for 2006-2008.
  10. State Economic Growth Widespread. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 47 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2017, and the percentage change in real GDP in the fourth quarter ranged from 5.2% in Texas to -1.3% in North Dakota