“Let’s make America great again.” The battle cry of President Donald Trump was not originally his—then former Governor soon to be President Ronald Reagan launched his campaign with those very words. In fact, Donald Trump, who will be the first President to serve non-consecutive terms since the former Mayor of Buffalo and conservative Democrat Grover Cleveland at the end of the 19th Century, is gaining for a longer term political trend toward conservative populism. Much has been made of Trump’s success with working class voters, but his success may be directly tied to America’s 40th President who in 1980 begin a conservative and populist political alignment that President’s who miss it struggle to gain re-election. It is easy to forget that Ronald Reagan was a Barry Goldwater populist running against establishment candidates like Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush.
The United States has seen multiple political realignments driven by major public policy issues of the time. Thomas Jefferson began a political alignment geared toward smaller government. Abraham Lincoln led a long run for Republicans geared toward the preservation of the union, end of slavery and alignment with business interest as the industrial revolution started. William McKinley carried on the Lincoln agenda but with a larger appeal to workers who benefited from the growth of American manufacturing tied to the adoption of the McKinely Tarriff. Republicans run ended with the Great Depression when Franklin Roosevelt created his New Deal coalition that brought together a wide range of voters whose distrust of business and markets looked to the government for solutions. Ronald Reagan, who was once a New Deal Democrat, pushed the New Deal coalition off the political spectrum when he convinced voters that government was not the solution but was the problem.
Now Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump have little in common. Reagan promoted free trade and Trump rallies crowds against it. Reagan promoted a sunny optimism about the future of the country and Trump focus on our challenges. Reagan had a professional style built by years on the “rubber chicken” speaking circuit and in Hollywood and Trump speaks like the New York City developer he is. However, Trump is fulfilling the political dream of the Reagan Revolution to bring working class voters, much as William McKinely did before the New Deal, into the Republican fold. According to exit polling from the 2024 election, Trump had a 12 point edge over Harris among non-college educated workers compared to a 4 point edge in 2020. He also cut the Democrats advantage with younger woman, African Americans and Hispanics. In many cases, Trump’s improvement among these traditional Democratic constituencies improved because of Democratic policy missteps that not only brought back the economic monster of inflation and hurt the U.S. economy but also adopted a liberal social agenda that much of America is simply not ready for.
As the 2024 Presidential electoral college map from the 270 to Win website illustrates below, Trump’s campaign proved successful in nearly all the key swing states in the South, Midwest and West. The Republicans took control of the U.S. Senate and have a strong chance to do the same with the U.S. House. The Midwest with higher unionization rates than other parts of the U.S. has turned Purple states like Ohio into Red states and states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin into swing states. In fact, if Minnesota didn’t have its Governor on the Democratic ticket, it may well have voted for Trump. Victories driven in the west by the immigration issue present an opportunity for the Republicans to build a Red Wall in the West Coast that combined with strong Southern and Midwest support make winning Presidential elections difficult for Democrats.
Wednesday morning quarterbacks blaming Vice President Kamala Harris campaign for the Republican sweep don’t understand history. The Democrats lost this election when they shifted fiscal policy to dramatically increase government spending even after the COVID 19 crisis ended and moved the country too quickly on a social agenda many voters were not ready for. Whether the candidate was a spry Joe Biden or energetic Kamala Harris- neither candidate was going to stop the populist Republican alignment. Republicans are perfectly capable of overplaying their hand and making economic matters worse through a tariff so aggressive that it triggers more supply chain shortages and rising costs. However, if Trump focuses on addressing the industrial energy crisis through regulatory relief, development of the domestic chips industry and promoting the United States as the prime location for economic investment, the Republican alignment may continue for years to come.
