What do you get with a Presidential assassination attempt, a poor Presidential debate performance and a major party nomination that happens in three days… the strangest election season in the history of the United States. American democracy has survived a civil war, unrest in the streets and a storming of the U.S. Capitol—the survival of U.S. democracy is likely not at stake. However, predicting the outcome of the 2024 election is very challenging. Unless you have been living under a rock, no review of the past month is needed. Vice President Kamala Harris has been nominated to be the Democratic Presidential candidate who will run against former President Donald Trump. Harris benefited from a solid launch and Trump’s boost from the Pennsylvania assassination attempt and a unified Republican Party convention left both candidates with better starts to the campaign season than anticipated.
Once the convention bumps settle down, Harris is likely to start the campaign with a small lead over Trump. However, that does not mean anything. The voters are not happy with the economy driven by inflation fears. According to Gallup, over 1/3 of the voters see the economy as the largest national challenge and 44% of the voters trust the Republicans to deal with the economy compared to 36% for the Democrats. Social issues such as abortion, while very important to a select group of voters, poll in the single digits for the most pressing challenge when measured against the larger voter universe.
Traveling to the Electoral College map, polling indicates Trump still maintains a lead over Californian Harris with Trump having a Real Clear Politics lead of state electoral college votes. Both candidates understand their political future lies in white, working-class voters that have run from the Democratic Party for the first time since the formation of the New Deal Coalition in the 1930s to jump on the Trump Bandwagon. These voters are frustrated by global trade deals, a loss of manufacturing jobs and a social agenda more acceptable in major urban centers than rural America. Harris will perform better with African American voters than Biden but it is not clear whether that support will extend to the white working class frustrated with Democrats recently.
What Harris has working for her is an undisciplined Republican Party candidate named Donald Trump. Trump can and probably should win the election on the issues, but he is perfectly capable of jumping off the message that can take him back to the White House. It is going to be a wild ride in November.
